I keep reflecting on my own United Methodist Church and how, at so many historical moments, our experience mirrors what the nation experiences. And it feels to me like it’s happening again; and, therefore, that this history might have something to teach today.
Let’s unpack the thesis in a moment, along with some Wapo polling data, to perhaps gives us some flickering, sober hope for our nation’s future.
First Thesis:
Historically, Methodism Always Mirrors American Culture, But Does Not “Lead” It
Scanning back over our long American story, I see parallels at various historical moments. Let me review those, and then talk about the present-day and how…once again…our experience might have a message for the country.
Here’s a zoomed-out look at some remarkable parallels….
1700s
The US: Moves from separate states to unified constitutional Republic, and representational government.
The Methodists: Moves from “movement” inside one denomination, to a codified “denomination,” whose structure has a representative legislature, a “court,” and a legislative process.
1800s
The US: Slowly divides between North and South, resulting in a Civil War, fought primarily over the enslavement of humans.
The Methodists: Presaging that war, the Methodists also split “North and South” (1840s) with enslavement also clearly being the driving moral issue.(1)
1930s:
The US: Arguably a peak era for the “Jim Crow” system of “separate but equal” laws, housing, and accommodation. (But which, once in place, remained so decades more…)
The Methodists: “North and South” reunify…but! They create a stunningly system of “separate but equal” for African-Americans…stunningly mirroring the same “Jim Crow” ethos of the dominant culture of the time.
Late 1960s/Early 1970s:
The US: While deeply divided, an underlying hopeful ethos of the era was “integration,” with school busing and other efforts at racial interconnection capturing the zeitgeist well into the early 1970s.
The Methodists: In 1968s, they abolished the “separate but equal” African-American “Central Conference,” and “integrated” our system (at least on paper…). This created the organization still known as “The United Methodist Church.”
1980s-2019
The US: A growing polarization, not state-by-state, but neighborhood by neighborhood. Large cities in every state balkanize into deeply Blue areas; Rural America becomes deeply Red; and suburbs exurbs often exhibiting “Purple” tendencies. This is a “stacking” of interests ala Ezra Klein’s book, “Why We’re Polarized.”
During this period, parallel structures were created by conservatives in multiple arenas: media like Fox News, dozens of Evangelical structures connected with the Republican Party, and the Federalist Society in the judiciary.
The Methodists: Urban Churches definitely become more “progressive.” Rural Churches definitely trend “Conservative.” Those Suburban/Exurban Churches desperately cling to a “Moderate” or “Purple” theology.
Meanwhile, parallel Conservative groups were also founded within United Methodism during this period, such as the Good News Movement, the “Confessing Movement,” and finally “The WCA.”
Further, these movements created parallel mission giving structures (I cover some of this history in this essay), creating the kind of “mirror world” that Naomi Klein talks about in her important book.
So…that’s the history I see. Again, the church never led any of these social changes. But, it very often parallelled —sometimes being slightly ahead, often lagging behind— what was happening in the culture.
Which gets us to now. First my assertion: And then a few words about it, supported by today’s Wapo poll data.
2016- Today:
The US: An attempted MAGA takeover of the United States government, under the guise of “reform.” A clear 2024 electoral victory by Conservative forces…
BUT! An almost immediate understanding that these “Conservative-MAGA” leaders were “overplaying their hand” and losing support.
The Methodists: So, the dates don’t line up exactly here. But, in this same period, a growing desire by Conservatives to leave the UMC(2), resulting in several things in quick succession:
1. A takeover of the denomination in 2019 by Conservatives.
2. An immediate counter-reaction by Moderates and Progressives.
3. A stunning decision (to many observers) of the Conservative to leave a denomination they now electorally controlled, and form a new church known as the “Global Methodist Church.”
Again, you have to look at the “forest” and not the trees to see these parallels throughout.
But it’s this last part —the resistance of Moderates/Progressives and the stunning abdication of the Conservatives— that feels relevant to our time. To outsiders, it made no sense, whatsoever.
Beginning in 2019, the Conservatives “won” and controlled the levers of power. So why, in God’s name, did they simply give up and leave to years later?
My thesis? Two Things:
They understood while they controlled the levers of church polity they did not control, nor would they ever, the “hearts and minds” of the majority of American Methodists.
Moderates and Progressives banded together to fight back. Quickly, and with an opposition that perhaps even surprised themselves.
Where is the Nation Now?
So, this would be a good moment to check out the new Wapo Poll from today, which shows a stunningly high number of Americans deeply disapproving of Donald Trump’s first month in office.
My friends: It’s really really hard to lose momentum as fast as Trump has.
But he’s managed to pull it off!
Republicans —through decades of gerrymandering and close attention the Electoral College politics— won the 2024 election. But, no matter what anybodysays, it was not an overwhelming “mandate.” Majority, yes. Mandate, no.
That said, Trump and his minions are behaving like it was a mandate.
And even if you wanted to claim a November-mandate, this polling suggests, that bare majority Trump won three months ago has already largely evaporated.
I know it doesn’t feel that way, because Trump, Elon Musk, and the merry band of Teenaged Mutant Ninja Hackers are wreaking havoc on the structures of our government as we speak.
But, look at this data again…study the link deeply. This is a stark and remarkable turnabout. This is why our time now (February 2025) reminds me immediately of February 2019 in our United Methodist Church.
The Evangelicals in our denomination formally held the levers of power, but a forceful counter-movement arose. It was just clear, in private conversations, that the Conservatives had “poked the bear” one too many times.
I’m recalling private conversations with Moderate United Methodist megachurch pastors in this time (post-February 2019), where some of them expressed their new fury at the Conservatives.
One told me, “I’m done with those people…”
Now, skip over to today’s Wapo poll, where a middle-of-the-road Texas woman voter says:
“Elon Musk may be a brilliant man, but he is not good working with people and does not know what he is doing quite frankly.”
See the rhyme?
I do.
Zoom out. Wapo says that 57% of all Americans believe Trump has “gone beyond his authority as president.”
Again, that’s a STUNNINGLY HIGH number, one month into a presidency!!
And while I remain disturbed by the Otherizing view too many Americans hold toward immigrants, look at the overall UN-popularity of Trump’s actions, so far.
Again, this starkly mirrors that post-February 2019 counter-reaction within the United Methodist Church.
For decades, we Progressive United Methodists assumed we might be the ones to be pushed out of our denomination. Our hearts were crushed, as we imagined the beloved, inclusive, church we thought we knew move farther and farther right…and clearly farther and farther away from the mainstream of the American people.
It was completely exhausting, and it frankly harmed our souls and damaged many humans, to fight against the harmful theology of the Evangelical Methodists for decades.
Bluntly, it was not a fight for everyone. To even engage the struggle, one had to remain centered in ways that nobody (including me) did well (because we are all human and we all have our limits)
But make no mistake: That moral “line in the sand” that emerged following February 2019, —the renewed opposition and willingness to stay and fight, then— has resulted in a new Moderate-to-Progressive Denomination now.
Following 2019, slates of Progressive-to-Moderate “delegates” were elected to the next General Conference all over the country. Even in “Red” states. Increasingly, Evangelicals were shunted to the side in these elections, a clear early rebuke of their “Traditionalist Plan.”
But: Up until that moment the Conservative United Methodists blinked and said “We are leaving,” we Progressives and Moderates had no idea how this would work out. Many of us had begun to despair for any hopeful future for our church.
Just as, perhaps today, you despair of the future of your nation.
So, American Friends: step back, take a breath, and perhaps embrace a qualified hope. I can’t talk you down that our system of government isn’t failing before our eyes.
It might be.
Because there are still enough differences between these parallel stories, that the nation might not fare as well as the denomination did. And honesty demands I disclose those too.
Our Open National Future, and Sobering “Caveats” to this Hopeful Story
That said, let’s move to two final, sobering, observations about what it took with the UMC..and why we cannot at all assert that things will work out well for the USA.
First: In the Church, Moderates and Progressives Decided to Get Along
After years of distance and wariness, enough of the “Center” of our denomination decided to “hang together” with enough of the “Left.”
This is was huge. And it happened, as I’ve said, with lighting speed, during the middle of 2019. This realignment following the passage of the “Traditionalist Plan” was nationwide, and was palpable to anyone. Contrary to the screeching voices of the Evangelicals, the “new United Methodist Church” is not “ultra-liberal” in any reasonable assessment.
But the Overton window definitely shifted back to Center-Left…where it had been, historically, until the mid 1980s.
In February 2019, UMs still didn’t know how we could all move forward, since Conservatives held power. We just all seemed to understand that we could.
This is super important in today’s America. To push back Fascism, to save our Constitutional Republic, it will take every single “center” and “left” person coming together.
It will mean coalitions among people who “agree to disagree” on some specific issues.
In our United Methodist tradition, we followed the dictum of John Wesley, who once preached on “agreeing to disagree.” He urged those who didn’t see eye to eye on all things to nevertheless join “hand in hand” in common causes.
The 2024 election really was about “saving Democracy.”
This likely means…We need the Democratic Party to lead and to stop defending the status quo or the past. (Regaining past “status quo” is a fantasy) And we need Socialists and Leftists to stop demanding the Democratic Party somehow magically vanish. (Dems vanishing is also a fantasy)
Until and unless the Center and Left in America truly put aside all differences to fight to save our system, the system itself will still collapse. Hopefully, that potential collapse is now beyond all debate.
And, as I’ve written many times, my credible belief is that there is no Leftist system ready to replace our current system.
But there is definitely a right-leaning fascism, ready to fill the void, and is doing so now. (A “void” they themselves are creating, of course…)
We will need everybody, left and center, to join “hand in hand” to fight for the vestiges of our democratic Republic. It’s not clear to me we have that now. But I do hear hopeful signs in private conversations.
Second: Conservative United Methodists Exhibited a Self-Regulated Desire to Finally Stop Harm
I know. Those in within the UMC, especially all of my Progressive friends, will vehemently disagree with this charitable reading of their actions.
Evangelical Methodists caused ir-reparable harm...historically deep harm that reverberates still…over decades. Some in positions of power, such as now disgraced former United Methodist Bishop Scott Jones, actively worked within our UM system to undermine it.
But this is also undenied by all: They finally blinked.
They realized, as I have said several times, that they controlled the levers of power, but they would never control the “hearts and minds” of the United Methodist Church.
Will political conservatives make this same move? Because, friends, this is where the new Wapo polls shows we are.
Will any political Conservatives “blink?”
I see no evidence of this. And this is the place where I still despair the most.
It’s hard to see how or why they would blink now. It was expected by many they would with their Fall 2024 votes. (Didn’t happen…)
With their deeply gerrymandered Republican districts, the dark money of Citizens United, leading Evangelical Christians counseling against empathy, and 79% of Republican voters still supporting Trump’s recent actions…why would they just “give up?”
This is the clearest place where my analogies between the UMC and USA diverge.
And so, as I have to admit: It might already be too late.
Here is all I can say. And this, again, mirrors what I said to United Methodists in February 2019.
In the UMC, it took Progressives pushing hard from the Left…and Centrists embracing the Progressive caucus, even when they believed differently.
It also took Conservatives realizing they had…“Overplayed their hand…” or “Poked the bear one too many times…”
Unlike in the church case, it really won’t take the entire Conservative movement changing it’s mind. But it will still take some…and that hasn’t yet ever happened during the time of Trump.
But even with all this, this is the “rhyme” I can’t shake today: Like the nation today, right up until the moment our denomination was “saved,” it wasn’t clear that it could/would happen either.
So, to me, February 2025 The United States feels like February 2019 in the United Methodist Church. The future is absolutely uncertain. The outlines of “resistance” and pushback are emerging.
But will the Left and Center come together?
Will anybody among the current Republican legislators “blink?”
I don’t know.
All I do know this morning is this:
Today’s February 2025 Wapo poll shows that Americans disapprove of what Trump is doing by a shockingly high margin. He has quickly lost support among all but his Maga-Conservative base. And this is exactly what happened to my denomination in February 2019.
What happens now is up to everybody else.
And I can’t promise you how that yet ends.
But I can show —despite the norms being demolished every day, the spinning carnage happening to so many people across the globe— that saving our constitutional system is not out of the question.
This is where our nation is now.
And yes, it is unsettled and unsettling.
But the future is entirely up to the people, still.
And the fundamentals speak to a sliver of hope still remaining.
Just as Donald Trump originally emerged the primordial ooze of the worst of America’s cultural nightmares, so too a hopeful future may yet emerge from the majorities who, like my Methodist pastor friend once said of Methodist Evangelicals, are “done with” the MAGA-Trump movement.
I wish it had happened last November. But it didn’t.
But that also doesn’t mean America is finished…yet.
This is why “Southern Methodist University” has that name. Because it was founded by the splintered “Southern Methodist” church.
In truth, Conservatives wanted to leave as early as 2016, but were blocked in these efforts by our Bishops, who at the time feared the split.
This is excellent, Eric! EXCELLENT! Thank you!
Thank you for a moment to breathe